Presidential Election 2025

[Statsman]

Opinion poll in the Sindo tomorrow.

[midlander12]

The party poll is apparently 21/21/20. The current state of stasis appears to have remarkable staying power.

[Brabantje]

The party poll is apparently 21/21/20. The current state of stasis appears to have remarkable staying power.

That's 40% not sure, I'm guessing?

Edit: just seen the poll, it's not the presidential poll.

[midlander12]

That's 40% not sure, I'm guessing?

Edit: just seen the poll, it's not the presidential poll.

No it was the party poll I was referring to. Apparently they're holding the prez one back till tomorrow.

A big swing to Aontu I notice. Must be the Steen sympathy vote. Or maybe they just liked the handbag.

[Brabantje]

That's 40% not sure, I'm guessing?

Edit: just seen the poll, it's not the presidential poll.

There could be upwards of 5% spoiled votes

[schmittel]

There could be upwards of 5% spoiled votes

Wouldn't surprise me. But I think that hands the presidency to HH.

If a spoiled vote is either a protest against poor performance against government parties or a protest against the status quo stitch up on nominations then the best way to protest is vote Connolly.

[schmittel]

Wow, quite the poll. Strong for CC, very poor for Gavin

G2cbg-nXQAAKgNX.jpg (86.38 KiB) Viewed 550 times

[schmittel]

And excluding undecideds:

G2cW5N0WUAApoR8.jpg (158.07 KiB) Viewed 549 times

[Brabantje]

And excluding undecideds:


G2cW5N0WUAApoR8.jpg

If the actual poll broke that way, Connolly would win easily. FF-FG transfers would need to be in the region of 90% and that just doesn't happen. If they were getting 70% that would be a good result. There will be those who would go FF to Connolly, and another cohort who would not have a transfer at all.

All that said, 30% don't knows is very high and means that using this poll for prediction purposes is a fool's errand.

[schmittel]

If the actual poll broke that way, Connolly would win easily. FF-FG transfers would need to be in the region of 90% and that just doesn't happen. If they were getting 70% that would be a good result. There will be those who would go FF to Connolly, and another cohort who would not have a transfer at all.

All that said, 30% don't knows is very high and means that using this poll for prediction purposes is a fool's errand.

Point taken on fool's errands, but we've nothing better to use for prediction purposes, so it's fun to speculate. I expected this poll to show CC ahead of HH, but not by this much, so based on this...

A reasonable chunk of the don't knows likely to be less than impressed with the choice of candidates and current govt. Either way they're likely either largely to break for CC or not vote at all. Good for CC.

Wonder how many of those undecideds are Shinners still unhappy they didn't run an SF candidate? A push from SF to get their base out behind CC could give her another boost.

Also the budget should give CC a bit of ammo that the other two cannot capitalise on.

I think a large part of this poll is down to the debate on Monday, CC did well, JG did badly and HH was invisible. If HH's contribution was deliberately bland so as not to spook the horses thinking she was in the driving seat, then she'll have to rethink that plan tomorrow.

I suspect it may have been bland because she's not a very good speaker on the spot.

I also suspect we're about to see CC get some very uncomfortable scrutiny in the media. On IT's politics podcast this week one of the journos was lamenting the debate and said it was about time that somebody landed a punch on CC, whether that was HH, JG or the media. None of the other contributors thought to correct him that It is not the media's role to do HH and JG's job for them!

[Brabantje]

Wonder how relieved the coalition are?

[ceannairceach]

I’ll not be voting - they’re all equally fcking awful.

[Statsman]

Wonder how relieved the coalition are?

Good poll for CC but that redistribution makes it closer than it looks on the headline numbers.

[Brabantje]

Good poll for CC but that redistribution makes it closer than it looks on the headline numbers.

I'm not convinced the transfers will be that good based on the last election. FF to FF was only at 60% in some places and this is a much personality driven as idealogical.

[Statsman]

I'm not convinced the transfers will be that good based on the last election. FF to FF was only at 60% in some places and this is a much personality driven as idealogical.

I'm not convinced of anything in that poll.

[Brabantje]

I'm not convinced of anything in that poll.

With 30% don't knows you'd be right to be sceptical

[Headshot]

I’ll not be voting - they’re all equally fcking awful.

Spoil your vote is my recommendation

Ill be putting Maria Steen on the paper

[Gatsbygirl]

How did today's TV debate go?

I was driving long distance and missed it.

Connolly seems to be pulling ahead judging by the recent poll

If momentum starts to build behind Connolly, she will be unbeatable. And she has the SF coffers to finance a last late push before polling day

She seems to have the interview skills to shut down any landmines

Incredible that her hiring of the Eirigí gun-woman looks like doing less damage than Gavin not knowing that a drone following him on his park run didn't have the correct licence, or was in the wrong zone or some such nonsense, which to me seems like a pretty harmless oversight and an easy mistake to make.

[Brabantje]

How did today's TV debate go?

I was driving long distance and missed it.

Connolly seems to be pulling ahead judging by the recent poll

If momentum starts to build behind Connolly, she will be unbeatable. And she has the SF coffers to finance a last late push before polling day

She seems to have the interview skills to shut down any landmines

Incredible that her hiring of the Eirigí gun-woman looks like doing less damage than Gavin not knowing that a drone following him on his park run didn't have the correct licence, or was in the wrong zone or some such nonsense, which to me seems like a pretty harmless oversight and an easy mistake to make.

I think if you're the COO of the Irish Aviation Authority the drone thing becomes a bit more critical, especially given the recent history of airport interference.

[Socthesecond]

https://x.com/jamesfahey15/status/1974798431865672047
The tweeter thinks Connolly won the debate.

[schmittel]

How did today's TV debate go?

I was driving long distance and missed it.

Connolly seems to be pulling ahead judging by the recent poll

If momentum starts to build behind Connolly, she will be unbeatable. And she has the SF coffers to finance a last late push before polling day

She seems to have the interview skills to shut down any landmines

Incredible that her hiring of the Eirigí gun-woman looks like doing less damage than Gavin not knowing that a drone following him on his park run didn't have the correct licence, or was in the wrong zone or some such nonsense, which to me seems like a pretty harmless oversight and an easy mistake to make.

It was much more even than the Virgin Media one. I think supporters of all could claim their pony did OK.

Humphries much more involved and engaged. Gavin quite punchy this time trying to go after Connolly.

They landed a few punches on CC over Russia and comments about German rearmament, but whilst the point might land with the audience you couldn't have accused CC getting overly flustered by it.

On the Eirigí woman, CC handled it well I thought, spinning it as a story of rehabilitation. And again she didn't get overly flustered about it. I think that issue is unlikely to sway her base, and she's handled it well enough for some of don't knows for it not to be too big an issue. I'd count myself in that camp.

Overall I reckon the debate today not going to change much in the way that the Virgin debate may have done.

[Gatsbygirl]

I think if you're the COO of the Irish Aviation Authority the drone thing becomes a bit more critical, especially given the recent history of airport interference.

Yes. Drones are bad if not properly controlled, etc etc

I still think this was s ball of smoke

Although obviously you need to be careful on such issues when you're running for the Presidency where the smallest thing can trip you up

But for me--and I intend to vote for Connolly-- the Eirigi issue was of a whole other order. Fair play to Connolly for managing to talk her way out of it. It would have destroyed another candidate

[Gatsbygirl]

It was much more even than the Virgin Media one. I think supporters of all could claim their pony did OK.

Humphries much more involved and engaged. Gavin quite punchy this time trying to go after Connolly.

They landed a few punches on CC over Russia and comments about German rearmament, but whilst the point might land with the audience you couldn't have accused CC getting overly flustered by it.

On the Eirigí woman, CC handled it well I thought, spinning it as a story of rehabilitation. And again she didn't get overly flustered about it. I think that issue is unlikely to sway her base, and she's handled it well enough for some of don't knows for it not to be too big an issue. I'd count myself in that camp.

Overall I reckon the debate today not going to change much in the way that the Virgin debate may have done.

Thank you for that comprehensive and balanced analysis

[Bubblypop]

Yes. Drones are bad if not properly controlled, etc etc

I still think this was s ball of smoke

Although obviously you need to be careful on such issues when you're running for the Presidency where the smallest thing can trip you up

But for me--and I intend to vote for Connolly-- the Eirigi issue was of a whole other order. Fair play to Connolly for managing to talk her way out of it. It would have destroyed another candidate

She definitely hasn't talked her way out of it, in my opinion and that of my coworkers. Ursula Shannon was still an Eirigi member when CC gave her a job. An Eirigi member, just like MLMD sister, as it happens. That type of connection with dissident Republicans and criminals, which she still had when CC took her on, is just not acceptable.

[Gatsbygirl]

She definitely hasn't talked her way out of it, in my opinion and that of my coworkers. Ursula Shannon was still an Eirigi member when CC gave her a job. An Eirigi member, just like MLMD sister, as it happens. That type of connection with dissident Republicans and criminals, which she still had when CC took her on, is just not acceptable.

It is not acceptable to me, either.

This was no historic crime from the bad old days before the Peace Process. This woman was a member of a dissident organisation which has no loyalty to the State and opposes the Peace Process

She was sentenced in the recent past---2014, and was hired by Connolly not long after her release from prison, when it seems she was still a member of Eirigi, for all the talk of "rehabilitation" and seeing the error of her ways

When she was arrested , the car contained guns, ammunition, black hoods, cable ties, and containers of petrol

Just think about those objects for a moment, and what they could be used for. We're not talking here about someone who was jailed for shop-lifting or for brawling outside a pub

I think that Connolly showed shockingly poor judgement here

The fact that this incident has not severely damaged her campaign makes me think she is reaching that fireproof stage where momentum has started to build and she will soon be home and hosed.