Lingfield 3.36 ONE STEP BEYOND 5/1 WIN
In a race where a few have never even won a race, and many of the rest have never won as far as 10fs; at least One Step Beyond is a CD winner. 5/1 is a fair price
GOLDEN DOVE 12/1 EW
6/1 in the paper this one, and that looked about right, altho wouldn't have been overly tempted at that price, but the 5yo mare aint been beat far in her second and third last outings, which were both over course and distance. too big not to back is le reasonage here.
Early Morning Dew ~5/2 is a reasonably lightly raced dual purpose 6yo with 18 runs to his name in total. having just his second run for his current trainer Suzi Best, and came a relatively unlucky second lto at Kempton - which looked his best form to date. that said, it was over a furlong further than today's trip, and on the Standard/Slow going at Kempton. Not for me, even at the 9/2 paper odds. ye can back him if ye want, but i'll leave off.
onto the jolly; Nasim, the on the drift 2/1 fav has three wins over 1m to his 4yo name. mainly races prominently, but his lto win over a mile at Chelmsford saw him held up; and it was not dissimilar tactics utilised the time previous when he finished a close enough 5th over a mile at Southwell. has never went overly close on the three occasions he's ran north of a mile, so is unproven at the trip. that said, he is plummeting in the ratings (down to 67 - from a high of 83 around the middle of last year when with Andrew Balding) , and he hit the line hard when gaining his lto win. verdict: has an extra 2fs to contend with, and on a different track, so am not overly worried about this jolly.
8.30 Kempton CHENG GONG 7/1 EW
gave this one a mention on here when looking at this race a couple of days ago. win was the recommendation when i figured him (going on the probable sp, which had him at 5s) to be a slightly shorter price, but just a little too big to not back each way, imo.
mentioned another horse in that post also:
https://www.gubu.ie/posting.php?mode=re ... 54#pr42384
that horse was Overstate. he was gonna be a second pick, if operating at or around (or bigger
just the one pick here in lucky last
prices look favourable, so will chance each way double with One Step Beyond and Cheng Gong
g'l
EDIT Golden Dove is now around 10/1 gen for that 3.36 Lingfield. humbug to prices changing when ye're writing out post