Dublin Central Bye Election 2026

[Statsman]

What with Pascal stepping down, the government face a second bye election in early 2026. The breakdown of first prefs in the 2024 GE looks like this:

SF: 23.3% (19.5% to Mary Lou)
FG: 16.8%
SD: 13.3%
Lab: 7.5%
Hutch: 9.5%
FF: 7.2%
Greens: 6%
PBPS: 4.5%
Others 11.9

Given that the combined SF/SD/Lab/Greens/PBPS Connolly squad share was 54.5%, with another nominally Left candidate, Claire Daly, picking up 4%, you'd have to assume that this is a win for the Left, most likely SF on the numbers. However, I suspect that if SF run Janice Boylan, there might be an outside prospect of the SDs sneaking it. Unlikely, but not impossible.

One thing is sure, it's an FG loss.

[midlander12]

What with Pascal stepping down, the government face a second bye election in early 2026. The breakdown of first prefs in the 2024 GE looks like this:

SF: 23.3% (19.5% to Mary Lou)
FG: 16.8%
SD: 13.3%
Lab: 7.5%
Hutch: 9.5%
FF: 7.2%
Greens: 6%
PBPS: 4.5%
Others 11.9

Given that the combined SF/SD/Lab/Greens/PBPS Connolly squad share was 54.5%, with another nominally Left candidate, Claire Daly, picking up

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