Micheál Martin: The beginning of the middle of the end?

[Y chromosome]

I'll never forgive the bould Micheál for forcing me out into the cold to have a smoke, my poor pint left defenceless behind me. Twenty years I've been waiting for his day of reckoning.

[p.ie man]

Micheal Martin reportedly acting humble at the Cairde Fail dinner tonight. Angry FFers will keep their powder dry until the presidential election is over. One thing that might help Martin now is a Humphreys victory.

[Random Lurker]

I'll never forgive the bould Micheál for forcing me out into the cold to have a smoke, my poor pint left defenceless behind me. Twenty years I've been waiting for his day of reckoning.

[Socthesecond]

Support for Fianna Fáil slumps while Martin’s rating falls significantly, new poll shows
Snapshot of party backing comes in at Fianna Fáil on 17% (down five), Sinn Féin on 27% (up five) and Fine Gael on 18% (up one.


Support for Fianna Fáil slumps while Martin’s rating falls significantly, new poll shows

https://www.irishtimes.com/politics/202 ... il-slumps/

[Risteard]

Hopefully they will have him brutally executed without any further delay. Ireland deserves it.

[Return of the Mac]

Hopefully they will have him brutally executed without any further delay. Ireland deserves it.

I hate to break it to you. But lack of a death penalty, may, just may, scupper your big idea

[Mullins]

Martin's legacy will be to bring FF and FG together as a single party. While diehards in both existing parties will still talk and act as if they are separate, more importantly in the eyes of the electorate, they are certainly not.

If FF have to go begging to it's dwindling membership for funds because the cost of the presidential election leaves a big black hole in its finances, Martin will be the sacrificial lamb.

Harris is in as much trouble. Already unpopular, keeping Steen off the ballot where her transfers could have been the difference between HH winning and losing, likewise it's going to be difficult for FG not to apportion blame.

[Brabantje]

Shots fired:

[Brabantje]

In the wake of Jim Gavin's effective withdrawal from the Presidential election, it would appear that Micheál Martin's leadership of FF is under severe questioning, with his namesake Mícheál Lehane writing this morning:



https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-co ... -election/

The one question seems to be whether or not Martin will be given that long or not, with a real chance that a heave may come sooner.

What a way to distract from tomorrow's budget.

Yes.



It's showtime.

[schmittel]

It's showtime.

Show delayed. They're already kicking for touch.

The time allowed for the review of the party's presidential campaign is longer than the party's presidential campaign.

I don't think they have the balls for a heave.

[Brabantje]

Show delayed. They're already kicking for touch.

The time allowed for the review of the party's presidential campaign is longer than the party's presidential campaign.

I don't think they have the balls for a heave.

That's definitely a vote winner. That report only buys time for the heavers to stategise. Martin is gone, 10 PP signatures the day after is not a great sign. The question now is "walk or be pushed"

[Publicrealm]

That's definitely a vote winner. That report only buys time for the heavers to stategise. Martin is gone, 10 PP signatures the day after is not a great sign. The question now is "walk or be pushed"

Dev Og limbering up?

[Brabantje]

Dev Og limbering up?

Perhaps not, but carries sufficient clout (not to mention personal animus) to start the ball rolling.

[p.ie man]

Front page of Irish Times today.

" TD James O'Connor said it was a very embarrassing number of weeks for Fianna Fail..."there was anger we allowed something like this to happen..."there is fury with the party leader". Asked if he thought the party needed to change its leadership, he said, "I think everything needs to be on the table"

[Socthesecond]

Interesting, ha ha.

[Brabantje]

A more rational way of looking at this is that modern political leaders generally have a lifespan at the top of 10 years before they start to go stale. MM has had 15.

[midlander12]

A more rational way of looking at this is that modern political leaders generally have a lifespan at the top of 10 years before they start to go stale. MM has had 15.

Bet he's sorry he didn't step down and run for President himself. Which I presume was the plan before FF got a better than expected result last November.

[Brabantje]

Bet he's sorry he didn't step down and run for President himself. Which I presume was the plan before FF got a better than expected result last November.

Given the state of the campaigns - and FF's campaigning in general - there'd have been no guarantee of a result. Throw in his inability to control his vitriol when under scrutiny - which he would have been as an individual - and he'd possibly have a disastrous run.

[midlander12]

Given the state of the campaigns - and FF's campaigning in general - there'd have been no guarantee of a result. Throw in his inability to control his vitriol when under scrutiny - which he would have been as an individual - and he'd possibly have a disastrous run.

I wasn't suggesting his victory was guaranteed but he would still have been a very formidable candidate. There is no way Connolly's more bizarre ramblings on Brexit and various events in Europe would have gone unchallenged as they largely did, given HH's obvious inadequacies in debate.

[Brabantje]

I wasn't suggesting his victory was guaranteed but he would still have been a very formidable candidate. There is no way Connolly's more bizarre ramblings on Brexit and various events in Europe would have gone unchallenged as they largely did, given HH's obvious inadequacies in debate.

I think that the problem both FF and FG face, is that they insist on treating presidential elections in the same manner as they treat other elections. The president needs to have a positive vision and communicate the same, atracking your opponent, appearing nasty or negative are never profitable positions. Damaging your opponent works point if it wasn't you who did it.

Robinson won because Lenihan didn't reflect maturely quickly enough. But it wasn't Robinson who knifed him. Ditto Sean Gallagher. Michael D did not wield that particular knife.

As many female opposition TDs have shown, it's all to easy to play MM into nasty, snarling Micheal from cuddly decent Micheal. Like a cheap violin.

[midlander12]

I think that the problem both FF and FG face, is that they insist on treating presidential elections in the same manner as they treat other elections. The president needs to have a positive vision and communicate the same, atracking your opponent, appearing nasty or negative are never profitable positions. Damaging your opponent works point if it wasn't you who did it.

Robinson won because Lenihan didn't reflect maturely quickly enough. But it wasn't Robinson who knifed him. Ditto Sean Gallagher. Michael D did not wield that particular knife.

As many female opposition TDs have shown, it's all to easy to play MM into nasty, snarling Micheal from cuddly decent Micheal. Like a cheap violin.

Well clearly there was no equivalent of Jim Duffy or Martin McGuinness on this occasion. It was a different scenario in any event, in that Connolly's utterances were out there for all to see, and no serious attempt was made to critique them in any meaningful way. Literally no other politician, certainly no party politician, would have got a pass on 'I admire the English people for voting Leave and standing up to EU bullying' and denouncing European 'militarism' while making little or no reference to the Russian aggression that it's a response to.

Anyway, all water under the bridge now. The world will keep spinning (sadly rightward, for the most part).

[Brabantje]

I'm the subject of spinning rightwards, I'm not sure that's a given. The right are growing (and it must be said the left also) because centrist politics has failed far too many. 40% not voting suits incumbent parties (this is the GE figure) because that 40% don't need to be swayed. But there comes a point when something does sway them (or enough of them) that things spiral. That thing is currently billionaires with money to spend on social media. But it won't always be. And when it becomes something more visceral we're in trouble.

[midlander12]

I'm the subject of spinning rightwards, I'm not sure that's a given. The right are growing (and it must be said the left also) because centrist politics has failed far too many. 40% not voting suits incumbent parties (this is the GE figure) because that 40% don't need to be swayed. But there comes a point when something does sway them (or enough of them) that things spiral. That thing is currently billionaires with money to spend on social media. But it won't always be. And when it becomes something more visceral we're in trouble.

No I meant internationally. Ireland remains something of an outlier in that regard, thankfully, the cesspit of Twitter etc notwithstanding. We have nothing to be complacent about either. What happens after 2029, when the left presumably gets into power and becomes unpopular in short order, is what concerns me.

[Brabantje]

No I meant internationally. Ireland remains something of an outlier in that regard, thankfully, the cesspit of Twitter etc notwithstanding. We have nothing to be complacent about either. What happens after 2029, when the left presumably gets into power and becomes unpopular in short order, is what concerns me.

There do appear to be signs of the same across the water. Caerphilly a good example, where the Greens have built on the Polanaski bounce in order to put together a "wink and a nod" leftish/anti Reform voting coalition encompassing disaffected Labour, some lib Dems, those going to "your party" (if it ever gets its act together) and Plaid. The common thread is left leaning/ anti centrist/ right wing. And it seems to have worked in this instance. As with here, it remains to be seen if these loose left coalitions will hold together.

[midlander12]

There do appear to be signs of the same across the water. Caerphilly a good example, where the Greens have built on the Polanaski bounce in order to put together a "wink and a nod" leftish/anti Reform voting coalition encompassing disaffected Labour, some lib Dems, those going to "your party" (if it ever gets its act together) and Plaid. The common thread is left leaning/ anti centrist/ right wing. And it seems to have worked in this instance. As with here, it remains to be seen if these loose left coalitions will hold together.

Yes, Caerphilly was encouraging but there were certain local factors which might not apply elsewhere, particularly in the north and east of England where Reform are mopping up with 35-45% because the rest of the vote is split not just between the various centre-left parties but also the remnants of the Tories who would probably eat rather than clutch their pearls before they'd vote Lib Dem let alone Green or Lab.

Anyway a long way from MM. It looks to me that he'll hang on till the spring and then retire gracefully having checked his birth cert and realised he's 65. The successor would then have a few months to settle in before the madness of the EU presidency. I don't know if it's the same these days, but back in the 90's and 00's these presidencies used to transfix the entire 'policy' civil service (as opposed to the bits of it that actually provide services) for months beforehand let alone the actual six months itself.