Dublin Central Bye Election 2026
Posted: Tue Nov 18, 2025 12:35 pm
What with Pascal stepping down, the government face a second bye election in early 2026. The breakdown of first prefs in the 2024 GE looks like this:
SF: 23.3% (19.5% to Mary Lou)
FG: 16.8%
SD: 13.3%
Lab: 7.5%
Hutch: 9.5%
FF: 7.2%
Greens: 6%
PBPS: 4.5%
Others 11.9
Given that the combined SF/SD/Lab/Greens/PBPS Connolly squad share was 54.5%, with another nominally Left candidate, Claire Daly, picking up 4%, you'd have to assume that this is a win for the Left, most likely SF on the numbers. However, I suspect that if SF run Janice Boylan, there might be an outside prospect of the SDs sneaking it. Unlikely, but not impossible.
One thing is sure, it's an FG loss.
SF: 23.3% (19.5% to Mary Lou)
FG: 16.8%
SD: 13.3%
Lab: 7.5%
Hutch: 9.5%
FF: 7.2%
Greens: 6%
PBPS: 4.5%
Others 11.9
Given that the combined SF/SD/Lab/Greens/PBPS Connolly squad share was 54.5%, with another nominally Left candidate, Claire Daly, picking up 4%, you'd have to assume that this is a win for the Left, most likely SF on the numbers. However, I suspect that if SF run Janice Boylan, there might be an outside prospect of the SDs sneaking it. Unlikely, but not impossible.
One thing is sure, it's an FG loss.