The Omicron tracker

[Scotty]

So according to Paul Reid in the press conference last night, still more than half of hospital and ICU cases are from unvaccinated. Though there has been a surge in first time vaccinees in the last week.

3,800 healthcare staff out with Covid yesterday, down from 5,800 the week before (Sign of less sickness with omicron?).

"Still to early to know", etc, etc. The sheer volume of cases with omicron could still mean health service is overwhelmed.

[isha]

3.5 to 3.8% of all hospital beds in Ireland are occupied by people with Covid in the past few weeks.

[Banshee Bones]

So according to Paul Reid in the press conference last night, still more than half of hospital and ICU cases are from unvaccinated. Though there has been a surge in first time vaccinees in the last week.

3,800 healthcare staff out with Covid yesterday, down from 5,800 the week before (Sign of less sickness with omicron?).

"Still to early to know", etc, etc. The sheer volume of cases with omicron could still mean health service is overwhelmed.

Did you ever back to me on the amount of hospitallised unvaccinated that are incapable of taking vaccines due to advanced age or existing conditions?

[Banshee Bones]

"Certain key workers to be exempt from self-isolation amid Omicron wave"

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/cer ... 32806.html

Government finally admitting that their restrictions are a bigger threat to the HSE than covid

This has been going on in other sectors where sick pay is nonexistant for some time, workers just carrying on even if they test positive

[Scotty]

Sorry, I said that but I dont actually know our capacity. Someone in thread comments had said test places are booked out in some locations and I jumped to a conclusion! It does seem like a fairly big number though

Just heard on the radio there a minute ago that we'll be testing 250k PER WEEK by the middle of January.

[Scotty]

Did you ever back to me on the amount of hospitallised unvaccinated that are incapable of taking vaccines due to advanced age or existing conditions?

Incapable due to advanced age? What age is that? I've heard of 102 year old in Cavan, a 111 year old in California. How old is too old?

As regards unvaccinated with pre existing in hospital, it's been posted on the other thread several times and is available in the official figures. You'll have to do your own homework I'm afraid.

[isha]

Just heard on the radio there a minute ago that we'll be testing 250k PER WEEK by the middle of January.

That'd be about 36K per day. Yesterday 33K tested, so I suppose not an astonishing increase.

[isha]

20211221_204338.jpg (172.66 KiB) Viewed 5289 times

Useful to add to % hospital beds occupied by Covid when assembling broader perspective. Numbers from Wales and England.

[Scotty]

Useful to add to % hospital beds occupied by Covid when assembling broader perspective. Numbers from Wales and England.

I don't have time to analyse that chart right now but it looks interesting. One thing that immediately jumps out though is that if you make it to your first birthday your chances of making it to your 30th significantly increase.

[isha]

[peasant]

25% less likelihood to end up in hospital, compared with Delta

An analysis of English data carried out by researchers at Imperial College found that Omicron was 11 per cent less likely to produce severe disease in any given individual after adjusting for factors including age, sex, underlying health conditions, vaccination status and prior infection.

At the population level this translated into a 25 per cent reduction in the risk of hospitalisation relative to Delta, with the steeper decline due to the fact that Omicron cases are more likely than Delta cases to be among people who have been previously infected or vaccinated, conferring substantial protection against severe disease.

source: Irish Times

That in itself and on an individual level is great news.

However...
The data on how much more infectious Omicron is is still in debate.
Some sources estimate at least twice as much (= 200%) whereas a Japanese study sets the figure at 4.2 times as much (= 420%)

So 25% less hospitalisation out of 200 - 400% more cases is still bad news and will overwhelm the health system in no time.

[peasant]

and today's figures ..from the Journal

PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIALS have been notified of 7,411 new cases of Covid-19 in Ireland today with Omicron now accounting for almost three-quarters of cases in Ireland.

As of 8am, 390 people were in hospital with the virus, 98 of whom are in intensive care.

[Scotty]

and today's figures ..from the Journal

The said 9,129 earlier, must have been some older ones.

[Scotty]

25% less likelihood to end up in hospital, compared with Delta

So 25% less hospitalisation out of 200 - 400% more cases is still bad news and will overwhelm the health system in no time.

The actual report from Imperial College London which the story is based on is here.

While they did find that 'hospitalisations' were reduced by up to 25% they found that 'admittance' to hospital was down by up to 45%. Our hospital stats are for people admitted to hospital.

[isha]

The said 9,129 earlier, must have been some older ones.

The 9129 is positive swabs. The 7000 odd cases announced is confirmed. We are building another backlog, approx 4000 I have read. Things will probably be a bit ropey in terms of accurate data over Christmas period.

[isha]

The 9129 is positive swabs. The 7000 odd cases announced is confirmed. We are building another backlog, approx 4000 I have read. Things will probably be a bit ropey in terms of accurate data over Christmas period.

Again this chap explains it. One of several data type people worth a follow.

[490808]

The 9129 is positive swabs. The 7000 odd cases announced is confirmed. We are building another backlog, approx 4000 I have read. Things will probably be a bit ropey in terms of accurate data over Christmas period.

But thats the minimum number of cases. There must be some way of estimating the actual number?

I just wonder if people are getting tired of testing at this stage? I know if had covid and tested positive on a antigen test I'd just isolate for 10 days and do antigen tests every few days till I was clear (I've a stack of free tests I picked up in the UK). Why would I do another 60 mile round trip to the nearest testing station just to make my case official?

btw isha I can't see a lot of the pics/graphics you post don't know why, am I the only one?

[Scotty]

btw isha I can't see a lot of the pics/graphics you post don't know why, am I the only one?

They're usually embedded twitter posts. Working fine for me (Win10, Chrome).

[Scotty]

Again this chap explains it. One of several data type people worth a follow.

Hmm, is he saying the 1700 difference between cases and positive swabs will be added later?

Couldn't they be cases that were already counted? Someone who tested positive last week and was positive again on a second test?

[isha]

Hmm, is he saying the 1700 difference between cases and positive swabs will be added later?

Couldn't they be cases that were already counted? Someone who tested positive last week and was positive again on a second test?

I don't know, could be so.
My sibling has tested positive on LFR, only one home with elderly mother. First available PCR in any near enough town is Christmas day afternoon. So testing is going on over the holidays.

[isha]

But thats the minimum number of cases. There must be some way of estimating the actual number?

I just wonder if people are getting tired of testing at this stage? I know if had covid and tested positive on a antigen test I'd just isolate for 10 days and do antigen tests every few days till I was clear (I've a stack of free tests I picked up in the UK). Why would I do another 60 mile round trip to the nearest testing station just to make my case official?

btw isha I can't see a lot of the pics/graphics you post don't know why, am I the only one?

Sorry bout that, dont know why. Maybe you need twitter account to see.

If I get positive LFT I will seek PCR test solely for the reason of having proper record so I get certificate. Maybe I can actually go inside with all the other animals then Otherwise I would not bother.

2 people here in house notified as close contacts late last night so they will do LFTs this morning. Probably just due to travel on planes.

If they are positive I have said there is no isolation. Im the only one in house not vaccinated, but I will not go in for that kind of thing. Only one who knows the way to the shagging oven too it seems !

[490808]

Omicron grows to three quarters of infections as 7,411 Covid cases confirmed

It seems to be speeding along.

[peasant]

24.12. the Journal

PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIALS have been notified of 11,182 further cases of Covid-19 in Ireland, with Omicron now estimated to account for 83% of confirmed cases. As of 8am, 393 people were in hospital with the virus, 89 of whom are in intensive care.

This is now Ireland’s highest daily total – the previous highest daily case number was on 8 January when 8,227 coronavirus cases were confirmed.

Which means we have already exceeded the "optimistic" scenario from the opening post as far as case numbers are concerned.
Thankfully, hospital numbers are a good bid lower than that prediction currently.

Peak isn't expected until well into January though

[Scotty]

Peak isn't expected until well into January though

Looking at South Africa's data it seemed to peak very very quickly, 3 weeks, and then decline almost as fast again.

[490808]

Looking at South Africa's data it seemed to peak very very quickly, 3 weeks, and then decline almost as fast again.

...

Maybe our peak will be in January because of all the meeting up at Christmas?